Herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 among the population of the Republic of Belarus amid the COVID-19 pandemic

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Abstract

Objective was to investigate the SARS-CoV-2 collective immunity status of the population of Belarus within the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Materials and methods. The work was carried out according to the methodology for assessing SARS-CoV-2 population immunity, developed by Rospotrebnadzor Russia and the Ministry of Health of Belarus with the participation of the St. Petersburg Pasteur Institute, taking into account WHO recommendations. The Bioethics Committee of Belarus and the local ethics committee of the St. Petersburg Pasteur Institute approved the study. Selection of participants was carried out using a questionnaire method and online technology (internet, cloud server). Volunteers were randomized into seven age groups (years of age): 1–17; 18–29; 30–39; 40–49; 50–59; 60–69; and 70+. Regional randomization ensured proportional representation of volunteers from each region, and no more than 30 people were included from one enterprise. In accordance with manufacturer instructions, blood plasma samples were analyzed for: IgG antibodies (Abs) to the SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid (Nc) using a quantitative ELISA test system; and IgG Abs to the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the SARS-CoV-2 S (spike) surface glycoprotein using a qualitative ELISA test system. Statistical processing was carried out using Excel 2010 and other software. Statistical differences were designated as significant when p < 0.05, unless otherwise indicated. Results. The level of seroprevalence, in terms of Abs to Nc among the Belarusian population, was 38.4% (95% CI 37.6–45.4). The highest Ab levels were found among individuals in older age groups (50-70+ years old). The lowest were found in children 1–17 years old and in young people 18–39 years old The distribution of seroprevalence across Belarusian regions was relatively homogeneous, with the exception of the Minsk Region, where a statistically significant decrease in the indicator was noted. In terms of profession, the largest share of seropositive individuals was found among transportation workers; the smallest was found in business. The moderate COVID-19 incidence has not led to a dramatic increase in the number of contacts. The base reproduction number (R0) was 1.3. In the Republic of Belarus, there was a moderate level of asymptomatic COVID-19 among seropositive individuals (45.3% [95% CI 44.0–46.7]). This form of infection was observed most often among children aged 1–17 years old (65.0% [95% CI 61.3–68.6]). In parallel with seroprevalence assessment, SARS-CoV-2 vaccination was carried out. We used two vaccines: Gam-COVID-Vac (also known as Sputnik V, developed by Gamaleya National Center for Epidemiology and Microbiology, Russia); and BBIBP-CorV (Sinopharm, PRC). Vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 was accompanied by an increase in the level of anti-RBD Abs (95% [95% CI 94.7–96.7]). Taking into account the vaccination of a subset of the population with BBIBP-CorV, the overall herd immunity, inferred from the analyzed indicators (presence of anti-Nc or anti-RBD Abs), was 47.1% (95% CI 46.3–48.0). Conclusion. COVID-19 in Belarus was characterized by a moderately pronounced course of the epidemic process. The threshold level of herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 has not yet been reached, as a result of which the conditions for progression of the epidemic remain.

About the authors

A. Yu. Popova

Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing

Email: depart@gsen.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2567-9032

PhD, MD (Medicine), Professor, Head  

Moscow

Russian Federation

A. A. Tarasenko

Ministry of Health

Email: ATarasenko74@belcmt.by

Deputy Minister and Chief State Sanitary Doctor of the Republic of Belarus 

Minsk

Belarus

V. Yu. Smolensky

Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing

Email: aidscouncil@gsen.ru

PhD (Medicine), Deputy Head 

Moscow

Russian Federation

S. A. Egorova

St. Petersburg Pasteur Institute

Author for correspondence.
Email: egorova72@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7589-0234

PhD, MD (Medicine), Deputy Director for Innovation 

St. Petersburg

Russian Federation

V. S. Smirnov

St. Petersburg Pasteur Institute

Email: vssmi@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2723-1496

Vyacheslav S. Smirnov,  PhD, MD (Medicine), Professor, Leading Researcher, Laboratory of Molecular Immunology 

197101, St. Petersburg, Mira str., 14

Phone: +7 (911) 948-59-22 (mobile) 

Russian Federation

A. M. Dashkevich

Republican Center for Hygiene, Epidemiology and Public Health

Email: Alla.Dashkevich@gmail.com
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8212-1129

Head 

Minsk

Belarus

T. N. Svetogor

Republican Center for Hygiene, Epidemiology and Public Health

Email: svetogor_tamara@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5798-693X

Epidemiologist, Supervision of Healthcare Organizations Division, Department of Epidemiology

Minsk

Belarus

I. N. Glinskaya

Republican Center for Hygiene, Epidemiology and Public Health

Email: irinaglinskay@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3941-9787

PhD (Medicine), Deputy Head Physician for Epidemiology 

Minsk

Belarus

A. L. Skuranovich

Republican Center for Hygiene, Epidemiology and Public Health

Email: als_68@mail.ru

Head Physician 

Minsk

Belarus

A. M. Milichkina

St. Petersburg Pasteur Institute

Email: pasteur@pasteurorg.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9421-7109

PhD (Medicine), Head Physician of the Medical Center 

St. Petersburg

Russian Federation

A. M. Dronina

Republican Scientific and Practical Center for Epidemiology and Microbiology

Email: alinadronina@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7020-387X

Deputy Director for Academic Affairs 

Minsk

Belarus

E. O. Samoilovich

Republican Scientific and Practical Center for Epidemiology and Microbiology

Email: esamoilovich@gmail.com

PhD, MD (Medicine), Professor, Head of the Laboratory of Vaccine-Preventable Infections 

Minsk

Belarus

I. V. Khamitova

St. Petersburg Pasteur Institute

Email: ckdl@pasteurorg.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1966-7860

PhD (Biology), Head of the Central Clinical Diagnostic Laboratory 

St. Petersburg

Russian Federation

G. V. Semeiko

Republican Scientific and Practical Center for Epidemiology and Microbiology

Email: g-semeiko@yandex.ru

PhD (Biology), Leading Researcher, Laboratory of Vaccine Controlled Infections 

Minsk

Belarus

T. V. Amvrosyeva

Republican Scientific and Practical Center for Epidemiology and Microbiology

Email: amvrosieva@gmail.com
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7309-152X

PhD, MD (Medicine), Professor, Head of the Laboratory of Infections with a Natural Reservoir 

Minsk

Belarus

N. P. Shmeleva

Republican Scientific and Practical Center for Epidemiology and Microbiology

Email: shmelevanataliya@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8543-9623

PhD (Medicine), Head of the Influenza and Influenza-Like Diseases Laboratory 

Minsk

Belarus

L. V. Rubanik

Republican Scientific and Practical Center for Epidemiology and Microbiology

Email: rubaniklv@tut.by
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7963-0026

PhD (Biology), Head of the Laboratory for Diagnostics of Combined Bacterial Viral Infections 

Minsk

Belarus

O. P. Esmanchik

Polyclinic No. 39

Email: olgaesm@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9052-7265

Head Physician 

Minsk

Belarus

I. A. Karaban

Ministry of Health

Email: inna_kia@list.ru

Head of the Hygiene, Epidemiology and Diseases Prevention Department 

Minsk

Belarus

V. G. Drobyshevskaya

St. Petersburg Pasteur Institute

Email: v.g.drobyshevskaia@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5827-9276

Doctor of Clinical Laboratory Diagnostics, Medical Center 

St. Petersburg

Russian Federation

G. V. Sadovnikova

Brest Regional Center for Hygiene, Epidemiology and Public Health

Email: ocgie@brest.by
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6309-7108

Deputy Head Physician 

Brest

Belarus

M. V. Shilovich

Brest Regional Center for Hygiene, Epidemiology and Public Health

Email: ocgie@brest.by
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9901-7368

Head of the Department of Epidemiology 

Brest

Belarus

E. A. Podushkina

Brest Regional Center for Hygiene, Epidemiology and Public Health

Email: podushkina72@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8559-0585

Head of the Anti-Epidemic Division, Department of Epidemiology 

Brest

Belarus

V. V. Kireichuk

Vitebsk Regional Center for Hygiene, Epidemiology and Public Health

Email: viktorya.vasilckova@yandex.by
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9053-8530

Epidemiologist, Immunoprophylaxis Division, Epidemiology Department 

Vitebsk

Belarus

O. A. Petrova

St. Petersburg Pasteur Institute

Email: belka-mbf1988@mai.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6252-1499

Physician of the Central Clinical Diagnostic Laboratory 

St. Petersburg

Russian Federation

S. V. Bondarenko

Gomel Regional Center for Hygiene, Epidemiology and Public Health

Email: sbondarenko@gmlocge.by

Head of the Anti-Epidemic Division, Epidemiology Department 

Gomel

Belarus

I. F. Salazhkova

Gomel Regional Center for Hygiene, Epidemiology and Public Health

Email: salajkova@gmlocge.by

Head of the Epidemiology Department 

Gomel

Belarus

L. M. Tkach

Grodno Regional Center for Hygiene, Epidemiology and Public Health

Email: Larisa_lm@mail.ru

Head of Anti-Epidemic Department 

Grodno

Belarus

L. P. Shepelevich

Minsk City Center for Hygiene and Epidemiology

Email: slubovs@yandex.com
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4751-8515

Head of the Division of Especially Dangerous  Infections with a Sanitary-Quarantine Point of the Epidemiological Department  

Minsk

Belarus

N. L. Autukhova

Minsk Regional Center for Hygiene, Epidemiology and Public Health

Email: N.Avtuhova@minsksanepid.by
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2161-201X

Deputy Head Physician 

Minsk

Belarus

V. M. Ivanov

St. Petersburg Pasteur Institute

Email: korsaring@yandex.ru

System Administrator

St. Petersburg

Russian Federation

A. S. Babilo

Minsk Regional Center for Hygiene, Epidemiology and Public Health

Email: babilo.a@minsksanepid.by
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7905-9600

Epidemiologist, Anti-Epidemic Division, Epidemiology Department 

Minsk

Belarus

M. V. Navyshnaya

Minsk Regional Center for Hygiene, Epidemiology and Public Health

Email: navyshnaya@tut.by
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9112-8135

Epidemiologist, Anti-Epidemic Division, Epidemiology Department 

Minsk

Belarus

N. N. Belyaev

St. Petersburg Pasteur Institute

Email: nikobel@gmail.com
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5017-9748

Senior Researcher, New Technologies Department 

St. Petersburg

Russian Federation

E. V. Zueva

St-Petersburg Pasteur Institute; Leading Researcher

Email: elenazueva9@gmail.com
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4241-1452

PhD (Biology), Senior Researcher, Laboratory of Molecular Immunology 

St. Petersburg

Russian Federation

L. A. Volosar

Minsk City Center for Hygiene and Epidemiology

Email: immun@minsksanepid.by

Epidemiologist, Anti-Epidemic Division, Epidemiology Department 

Minsk

Belarus

V. N. Verbov

St-Petersburg Pasteur Institute; Leading Researcher

Email: pasteurdnt@yandex.ru

PhD (Biology), Head of the New Technologies Department 

St. Petersburg

Russian Federation

I. V. Likhachev

St-Petersburg Pasteur Institute; Leading Researcher

Email: liv-dnt@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9952-0126

Junior Researcher, New Technologies Department 

St. Petersburg

Russian Federation

T. O. Zagorskaya

Minsk Regional Center for Hygiene, Epidemiology and Public Health

Email: zagorskaya.tanya@yahoo.com
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0451-8141

Head of the of the Division of Especially Dangerous Infections 

Minsk

Belarus

N. F. Morozova

Mogilev Regional Center for Hygiene, Epidemiology and Public Health

Email: dubina-1967@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7788-3057

Epidemiologist, Division of Especially Dangerous Infections, Epidemiology Department 

Mogilev

Belarus

Z. R. Korobova

St. Petersburg Pasteur Institute

Email: korobova@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0535-5014

Laboratory Assistant, Laboratory of Molecular Immunology 

St. Petersburg

Russian Federation

A. V. Gubanova

St. Petersburg Pasteur Institute

Email: gubanovasasha2012@gmail.com
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7222-081X

Doctor of Clinical Laboratory Diagnostics, Central Clinical Diagnostic Laboratory 

St. Petersburg

Russian Federation

A. A. Totolian

St. Petersburg Pasteur Institute

Email: pasteur@pasteurorg.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4571-8799

PhD, MD (Medicine), Professor, RAS Full Member, Head of the Laboratory of Molecular Immunology; Director 

St. Petersburg

Russian Federation

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Copyright (c) 2021 Popova A.Y., Tarasenko A.A., Smolensky V.Y., Egorova S.A., Smirnov V.S., Dashkevich A.M., Svetogor T.N., Glinskaya I.N., Skuranovich A.L., Milichkina A.M., Dronina A.M., Samoilovich E.O., Khamitova I.V., Semeiko G.V., Amvrosyeva T.V., Shmeleva N.P., Rubanik L.V., Esmanchik O.P., Karaban I.A., Drobyshevskaya V.G., Sadovnikova G.V., Shilovich M.V., Podushkina E.A., Kireichuk V.V., Petrova O.A., Bondarenko S.V., Salazhkova I.F., Tkach L.M., Shepelevich L.P., Autukhova N.L., Ivanov V.M., Babilo A.S., Navyshnaya M.V., Belyaev N.N., Zueva E.V., Volosar L.A., Verbov V.N., Likhachev I.V., Zagorskaya T.O., Morozova N.F., Korobova Z.R., Gubanova A.V., Totolian A.A.

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